LIVE DAILY BOARD · JULY 20, 2026
Two picks today.
Marte + Perdomo.
DOUBLE DOWN — Ketel Marte (0.733) + Geraldo Perdomo (0.691).
Active streak
2
consecutive winning picks · since Jul 19
Pick record
12–4
every pick played · 8 days
Top pick win probability
73.3%
Ketel Marte · AZ
2025 validation
74.7%
daily top pick · 182 days, walk-forward
THE BOARD
Every pick, ranked.
Recalibrated P(≥1 hit) for every projected starter today. The play policy takes the top two when both clear 66%; otherwise one pick, or none at all. Picks lock at first pitch; statuses and box lines update live.
| Player | Game | Win probability | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  | James Wood#1 WSH @ COL · vs Kyle Freeland announced | LIVE | 73.9% |
| 2 |  | CJ Abrams#4 WSH @ COL · vs Kyle Freeland announced | LIVE | 73.3% |
| 3 |  | Curtis Mead#2 WSH @ COL · vs Kyle Freeland announced | LIVE | 73.3% |
| 4 |  | Ketel MartePICK#1 AZ vs ATH · vs Jeffrey Springs announced | 8:40 PM CT | 73.3% |
| 5 |  | Vladimir Guerrero Jr.#3 TOR vs TB · vs Nick Martinez announced | LIVE | 73.3% |
| 6 |  | Luis Arraez#1 SF @ KC · vs Michael Wacha announced | LIVE | 72.7% |
| 7 |  | Jake McCarthy#1 COL vs WSH · vs Andrew Alvarez announced | LIVE | 71.8% |
| 8 |  | Bobby Witt Jr.#2 KC vs SF · vs Trevor McDonald announced | LIVE | 69.9% |
| 9 |  | Dylan Crews#5 WSH @ COL · vs Kyle Freeland announced | LIVE | 69.1% |
| 10 |  | Ceddanne Rafaela#2 BOS vs BAL · vs Shane Baz announced | LIVE | 69.1% |
| 11 |  | Ernie Clement#1 TOR vs TB · vs Nick Martinez announced | LIVE | 69.1% |
| 12 |  | Jeremy Peña#1 HOU vs MIA · vs Janson Junk announced | LIVE | 69.1% |
TRACK RECORD
Watch it calibrate.
The model's numbers are only worth what they predict. Every probability below is out-of-time: fit on the past, scored on what came next. Live results join the chart as they settle.
Predicted vs. actual
2025 walk-forward season, 41,117 picks in 12 buckets
View as table
| Predicted | Actual | Picks |
|---|---|---|
| 24.0% | 23.8% | 3,463 |
| 43.4% | 43.2% | 3,468 |
| 52.3% | 52.8% | 3,383 |
| 56.2% | 55.6% | 3,463 |
| 59.2% | 59.8% | 3,419 |
| 60.3% | 59.6% | 3,363 |
| 62.7% | 63.5% | 3,478 |
| 64.4% | 64.5% | 3,652 |
| 65.7% | 65.9% | 3,349 |
| 66.2% | 65.4% | 3,243 |
| 67.9% | 67.5% | 3,437 |
| 70.9% | 70.1% | 3,399 |
Daily top pick, 30-day rolling
Hit rate of the #1 board pick
View as table
| Date | 30-day hit rate |
|---|---|
| 2025-04-05 | 20.0% |
| 2025-04-19 | 58.3% |
| 2025-05-03 | 73.3% |
| 2025-05-17 | 76.7% |
| 2025-05-31 | 76.7% |
| 2025-06-14 | 73.3% |
| 2025-06-28 | 80.0% |
| 2025-07-12 | 76.7% |
| 2025-07-30 | 66.7% |
| 2025-08-13 | 66.7% |
| 2025-08-27 | 86.7% |
| 2025-09-10 | 90.0% |
| 2025-09-24 | 80.0% |
THIS SEASON
The streak, day by day.
Every settled pick, in order. The line climbs one step per winning pick and drops to zero the moment one goes hitless: the same 12-for-16 record and 2-streak on the tiles above, drawn out over 9 settled days. The line is riding a 2-pick streak, live since Jul 19.
View as table
| Date | Picks | Streak |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 6 | ✓ Shohei Ohtani 72%; ✓ Luis Arraez 70% | 2 |
| Jul 7 | ✓ Shohei Ohtani 72%; ✓ Fernando Tatis Jr. 71% | 4 |
| Jul 8 | — Byron Buxton 72%; ✓ Otto Lopez 72% | 5 |
| Jul 9 | ✗ Gunnar Henderson 72%; ✗ Trea Turner 72% | 0 |
| Jul 10 | ✓ Luis Arraez 73%; ✓ Bobby Witt Jr. 72% | 2 |
| Jul 16 | ✗ Bo Bichette 69% | 0 |
| Jul 17 | ✓ Jake McCarthy 73%; ✓ Fernando Tatis Jr. 73% | 2 |
| Jul 18 | ✓ Elly De La Cruz 74%; ✗ Sal Stewart 73% | 0 |
| Jul 19 | ✓ Elly De La Cruz 73%; ✓ Ketel Marte 73% | 2 |
PICK LOG
Every day, on the record.
Picks are logged before first pitch and never edited. Outcomes settle the next morning when official data posts.
| Mon Jul 20 |  ···James Wood 73.9% — pending ···CJ Abrams 73.3% — pending |
| Sun Jul 19 |  ✓Elly De La Cruz 73.3% — hit ✓Ketel Marte 73.2% — hit |
| Sat Jul 18 | ✓Elly De La Cruz 73.9% — hit ✕Sal Stewart 73.3% — no hit |
| Fri Jul 17 |  ✓Jake McCarthy 73.2% — hit ✓Fernando Tatis Jr. 73.2% — hit |
| Thu Jul 16 |  ✕Bo Bichette 68.8% — no hit ✓Trea Turner 66.0% — hit |
| Fri Jul 10 |  ✓Luis Arraez 72.6% — hit ✓Bobby Witt Jr. 72.2% — hit |
| Thu Jul 9 |  ✕Gunnar Henderson 72.2% — no hit✕Trea Turner 72.2% — no hit |
| Wed Jul 8 |  —Byron Buxton 72.4% — did not play ✓Otto Lopez 72.4% — hit |
| Tue Jul 7 |  ✓Shohei Ohtani 72.0% — hit✓Fernando Tatis Jr. 71.4% — hit |
| Mon Jul 6 | ✓Shohei Ohtani 72.1% — hit✓Luis Arraez 70.0% — hit |
METHOD
Built to be doubted.
Walk-forward, no leakage
Every feature is computed strictly from games before the prediction date. The model retrains every morning and never sees the day it predicts.
Ideas earn their way in
Model changes must beat the incumbent on three held-out seasons. Eight upgrades failed that gate and were rejected. The receipts are in the case study.
Externally checked
On matched player-days, the model's probabilities price hits at parity with professional sportsbook lines, built only from free public data.
Honest about the odds
A great top pick wins about 4 days in 5. Misses are part of the math. The streak comes from compounding good probabilities, not certainty.